This Article Didn’t Age Well: Recession Likelihood of 2020

A recession is no longer likely to happen this year in the US, according to the Economic Policy Survey report released today by the National Association for Business Economics.

The survey of NABE members put the odds of a recession this year at 25% or less.

“Survey respondents no longer believe a recession is likely in 2020 — a reversal from the predominant view of panelists in the February 2019 survey,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG.

“Only 13% of panelists now forecast a downturn in 2020,” Hunter said. “When asked what odds they place on a 2020 slump, a majority of respondents places the probability at 25% or less.”

In comparison, 42% expected a recession this year in the February 2019 survey.

However, 37% believe a recession will begin in 2021, up from 25% in the 2019 survey.

Another 37% believe a recession will happen later than 2021, up from 11% in the 2019 survey.

Looking back at the last three years, a majority of panelists believe policies implemented by the Trump administration have had a positive impact on GDP growth; however, 90% of respondents believe tariffs have had a negative effect on the economy. Still, the net effect of Trump administration policies had a modest boost, according to 44% of respondents, only 7% said they had a significant boost.

In addition, 52% of survey respondents believe current fiscal policy to be “too stimulative.” But that is down from 71% who said the same in an August 2018 survey.

For the world, 53% expect global economic growth to slow this year from the estimated growth of 3.0% in 2019.

NABE’s February 2020 Economic Policy Survey was conducted between Jan. 23 and Feb. 5 and includes responses from 210 NABE members.

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